UEFA EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP 2016 PREDICTIONS

UEFA EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP 2016

The Approach:

1.       Estimation of a regression model to predict the number of goals scored by a particular team (team i) against a particular opponent (team j) using historical data of international matches ( a total of 4719 matches)

2.       Literature review on predicting football matches, the number of goals scored by a particular team is described by Poisson distribution and explained the following statistical factors

a.        The difference in team performance as reflected by Elo rating prior to the match. Elo rating was originally devised to rank chess players. It is a composite measure of national football team success that evolves depending on team’s result and strength of opponent

b.       The number of goals scored by a particular team in the last 10 competitive matches.

c.        The number of goals conceded by the opponent team in the last 2 competitive matches.

d.       A home dummy variable

e.       European championship dummy variable to capture whether a team does systematically better at European Championships than in other competitive matches

3.       Monte-Carlo simulations with 1 Lakh draws to generate a distribution of outcomes of each of the 52 matches of Euro 2016. A rounded prediction of the goals scored to determine the outcome of each match during group stage and the unrounded prediction to pick the winner in the knockout stage

4.       Next estimation results were used to generate both sets of probabilities that a particular team reaches a particular stage of the tournament, up to and including the championship and a develop the single most likely forecast for the outcome of each match, which was then extrapolated through the tournament until the final