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Lok Sabha Election 2014 results- An analysis with the help of Social Science Theories

The Lok Sabha election 2014 saw the rise of BJP and its staggering win over Congress. The 2014 polls race had its favorites and saw the rise of the dark horse Narendra Modi. I am not an expert, still I have tried to analyze the poll results from 3 management theories that we have learned over the course of the first 2 semesters- Rational choice theory, Bandwagon effect theory and Reinforcement theory. In my opinion, people’s voting choice depends on party identification, individual’s general orientation, orientations on specific issues of public policy, general evaluations of government performance, evaluation of personal profile of candidate and peer’s opinion. In order to establish some base for the analysis, let us first look at the SWOT analysis of both BJP and Congress.

SWOT Analysis:

Strength Congress: They are considered more secular in terms of their party orientation. BJP: It had an energetic campaigner in Narendra Modi. His performance as Gujrat’s CM has impressed everyone. Favorable poll opinions had boosted BJP’s standing.	Weakness Congress: The recent loses in 4 state polls had dented the party’s image in front of the National voters. Moreover scams, corruption, weakening economy with ever rising inflation emerged as major vulnerabilities. BJP: 2002 Gujrat riots remained BJP’s weak spot. Moreover BJP had a very scanty presence in Northeast and South India.
Opportunities Congress: They had a lower acceptance threshold as they can form coalition government with the help of its allies. BJP: Congress was the weakest during this election and decisive wins over key states can knock them out of the Centre.	Threats Congress: The continuously growing public uproar against the scandals, inflation etc. of the 10 year governance especially the paralytic second term. BJP: Anti Modi leaders were working trying their level best so that BJP did not race to a large Lok Sabha tally.

Application of the Social Science theories:

·        Reinforcement Theory- This theory states the people seek out and remember information that provides cognitive support for their pre-existing attitudes and belief. There was a growing perception that the Congress government failed during its second term and were consistently angry at Congress before the elections. This pre-existing belief was made stronger by the AAP anti-corruption agitations, higher prices for household commodities, weakening of Rupee etc. Moreover people perceived Modi to be more efficient and effective leader compared to Rahul Gandhi.   
    

·        Rational Choice theory- This theory states that people make rational decisions and choices in order to maximize their personal advantage. People wanted change in the Centre and wanted someone who would drive the change and lead towards growth and development. Manmohan Singh and his cabinet ministers were bombarded with scams and corruption. He could not assert his authorities in the government decision making process and was mere a puppet in the hands of Sonia Gandhi. The leadership quality of Rahul Gandhi could not be projected as he had no experience in governance, not even a ministry or a department. People saw Narendra Modi as effective leader and he became a rational choice which could lead the people of India towards a better future of development and growth.

·        Bandwagon effect Theory- This theory states that as more people come to believe in something, others also hop on the bandwagon believing the same. This phenomenon can be seen with the increasing popularity of Narendra Modi in social media circles. The effective use of marketing strategies using Social Media and other forms of communication tools of BJP made Narendra Modi the talk of the country and the world. Congress failed to communicate with the voters in social media considering the fact that this time the percentage of first time voters was very large. Most of the opinion polls reflected the success of BJP communication strategy and favored them as winning the polls with a huge margin, which became a reality.